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TSX: KWH 9.83 -0.05 ( -0.51% ) Volume: 62,247 KWH.UN is a member of the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index more February 24, 2017

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Key Market Insights

Key Market Insights

Brent lost $1.11/bbl yesterday settling at $55.59/bbl and WTI was down 93 cents to $52.93/bbl. Undermining these efforts has been rising production in the United States, where increased drilling activity especially by shale oil producers has lifted overall output to 8.98 million bpd, up 6.5 percent since mid-2016 and to its highest level since April last year.

OPEC and other producers, including Russia, have agreed to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of 2017 in a bid to rein in a global fuel supply overhang. Saudi Arabia told OPEC that it reduced production last month by the most in 8 years, reducing output by 717,600 bpd to 9.748 million bdp, more than it pledged under a deal to curb supply, according to the group’s monthly market report.

Electricity Price Trends

PRICE TRENDS AT KEY TRADING POINTS ($/MWH)

ERCOT released their January Demand & Energy Report last week showing that Jan17 peak demand set a new monthly which beat 2016 by 21.1%. However, overall energy usage in Jan17 was down 0.8% from 2016. In cash trading, high wind and outages to both Singleton-Zenith and Jewett-Limestone lead to bearish prices in the northern half of Texas (HB_North and HB_West). The day-ahead/real-time peak spread for HB_North last week (2/6-2/10) averaged $4.76. This positive DART was primarily driven by Wednesday (2/8) when the HB_North peak strip averaged only $10.76 in real-time with four hours clearing negative due to congestion. Heavy congestion was also seen this Sunday with high wind causing the N/W spread to average $7.49 in the day-ahead market and $11.99 in real-time. In the term, the Houston/North spread was traded heavily mid-week with 2Q17 H/N trading $6.25 and the 2019 H/N spread trading up to $2.75.

12 MONTH STRIP PRICE

The eastern power markets have followed in suite with the downward gas move, as significantly warmer weather released over the weekend has softened the markets. In contrast, the bal-day market experienced strength early this morning due to congestion as a result of the outage of one unit at Calvert Cliffs impacting the market. Unit 2, as a planned outage, was removed just after midnight on Sunday to refuel. PJM WH DA for next week is trading down 85 cents, and last traded 29.50. Summer 17 (July17-August17) for PJM WH RT traded down 60 cents this morning, before rebounding to 42.50. The market is starting to shift its focus to consider the impacts of outage season as well as the upcoming summer with the forecasts for the rest of Feb17 visible and warm for most of the country.

Natural Gas Price Trends

NORTHEAST SPOT NATURAL GAS PRICES ($/MMBTU)

The March 17 NYMEX NG contract traded this morning to a new low of $2.952, a level it hasn’t hit in almost three months. It was November 18th of last year that the Mar17 contract opened at $2.95, and since then rallied almost 90 cents to hit a high of $3.822 at the end of December before becoming range bound between $3.10-$3.40 in the last couple of weeks.

NYMEX HH 5-YEAR FUTURES

So far, the storage number for week ending Feb 10 looks like it will be a withdrawal between 130-145 Bcf, compared to the five-year average of 156 Bcf. This past week the EIA withdrawal of 152 Bcf was almost exactly in line with market expectations.

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