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Key Market Insights

Brent was up 20 cents on Friday settling at $52.10/bbl and WTI gained 23 cents to $48.82/bbl.

The International Energy Agency said on Friday that it expects 2017 oil demand growth of 1.5 million bpd, up from a previous expectation of 1.4 million bpd. US drillers added 3 crude rigs last week, according to Baker Hughes. Libya’s biggest oil field cut output by more than 30%, a person familiar with the matter said Sunday, while the head of a union said loadings at Zueitina port ceased after employees demanded better working conditions.

Electricity Price Trends

Price Trends At Key Trading Points ($/MWH)

price trends

Eastern power markets are off to a quiet start this morning, with little significant change to the weather forecast over the weekend. Week over week the term cal18 strips in the east are all up, NY Zone G leading the way up 67 cents, MISO Indiana Hub up 65 cents, Mass Hub – Nepool up 61 cents, and PJM West Hub up 50 cents. These changes are correlated to the gas market’s firm up over the past week as traders are starting to shift focus to this upcoming winter.

12 month strip price

strip price

In West Power, SP15 and MidC cash prices expectedly fell from lofty levels set during the prior week’s heat wave. For the week, SP15 averaged $41.41 down $30.46 from the prior week. MidC averaged $37.02, down $35.32. Term markets were generally supported in the face of falling natural gas basis market. Looking forward, temps are normal to below normal, while Renewables look stout and congestion is starting to creep into the SW lines.

Natural Gas Price Trends

Northeast spot natural gas prices ($/MMBTU)

Natural gas spot

The prompt month contract for NG NYMEX traded up every day last week, gaining just over 22 cents on the week, starting off last Monday at $2.759, and closing Friday at $2.983. For the cal18 strip every major basis location we have listed below in the table were also all up an average of 8 cents week over week. This past Thursday’s Energy Information Administration’s storage report disclosed a smaller than expected build of 28 Bcf. The ice market for the storage number previous to its release was trading 34 at 38, and Bloomberg’s average was a 37 Bcf build. The miss was predominantly in the South Central region, and also slightly in the West/Mountain region.

NYMEX HH 5-year futures

Natural gas spot

 

All information is pulled from Macquarie and Crius internal databases as of August 2017. All materials published on this document are based on real-time and/or historical data, and are for informational purposes only. Crius Energy makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the quality, accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided here. Crius Energy accepts no responsibility for any loss, damage, costs or expense (whether direct or indirect) incurred as a result of any error, omission or misrepresentation of any information on this page. This content includes predictions, estimates, or other information that might be considered forward-looking. Any forward-looking statements contained herein are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.